Housing Market Webinar - Very Informative

I listen to an interesting Webinar today presented by John Tuccillo, former Chief Economist for NAR, the National Association of REALTORS®.  Here is a summary of points;

The Emerging Recovery

·         More than half of the stimulus funds have yet to be spent, and will be redirected to the most effective programs.  It’s estimated that only 10% was spent in 2009 with another 60% to be spent in 2010.

·         Banks are flushed with liquidity, “no kidding”.

·         Home sales are up and the tax credit continues to push up the market.

Potholes

·         Unemployment is still a big problem; job growth is nonexistent and it could be midyear before it gets even slightly better.  There are no obvious engines to job growth yet, the silver lining: sharp drops have tended to be followed by strong recoveries.

·         The financial system is still tight; banks more focused on their own health and profitability, new regulatory structure unclear, and excess liquidity present in the economy could be a source for inflation.

·         Real estate sales are warming up, but there is no way to tell how much is due to the tax credit, the rate of foreclosures still to come is unknown and is expected to trend high for the foreseeable future.  Commercial markets are now slumping.