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OCT
12
First Time Buyer Tax Credit – Not the Only Cause for Increased Homes Sales



The First Time Buyer Tax Credit has rightly been credited with stimulating recent home sales; however, looking at the result by price range shows that in Houston there is more at work than just the tax credit. In an earlier post I pointed out that the number of transactions in 2009 compared to 2008 were down 20.3% in the first quarter, down 19.1% in the second quarter and will be up slightly in the third quarter. I have analyzed those numbers by price range. The analysis shows that the third quarter experienced significant improvement in all price ranges except over $2,000,000. The over $2,000,000 segment continues to languish with all three quarters reporting declines of more than 50%. The segment of $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 had as many sales in third quarter 2009 as in third quarter 2008. The surprising number, one that I have yet to understand the reason, the segment of $750,000 to $1,000,000 showed more than 15% increase in the third quarter after having sizable decreases in the earlier quarters. I know these numbers may make your head swim. The big picture is we have one additional sign that the market is slowly improving and in all segments under $2,000,000. Shown below are the quarterly comparisons by price range.

                                          Houston Single Family Home Sales
                                        Change in Transactions 2008 to 2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First 

Second

Third

 

 

 

Quarter

Quarter

Quarter

 

  

Less than $100,000

1.7%

-14.0%

1.4%

 

 

$100,000 to $200,000

-26.0%

-22.7%

-0.8%

 

 

$200,000 to $300,000

-24.4%

-13.8%

4.0%

 

 

$300,000 to $500,000

-28.5%

-18.7%

-2.4%

 

 

$500,000 to $750,000

-36.5%

-23.5%

-6.8%

 

 

$750,000 to $1,000,000

-30.0%

-25.9%

15.7%

 

 

$1,000,000 to $2,000,000

-40.6%

-20.6%

0.0%

 

 

Over $2,000,000

-51.9%

-50.9%

-51.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 




Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Houston Association of REALTORS®

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Tom Plant

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